CFTC v Kalshi on election markets
Election Markets Can Stay After CFTC Withdraw Court Challenge Election Markets Can Stay After CFTC Withdraw Court Challenge, allowing the market to be reactivated. Election Markets Can Stay After CFTC Withdraw Court ChallengeFollowing the election, Donald Trump Jr. joined Kalshi as a strategic advisor, and his father nominated Kalshi board member Brian Quintenz to lead the CFTC. Quintenz has advocated for a continuation of both election and sports prediction markets.
Prediction markets here to stay?
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour celebrated the CFTC’s move to dismiss their appeal. Mansour posted on X that, “Election markets are here to stay. Prediction markets have been banned, censored, limited and pushed out for decades. This win solidifies their right to exist and thrive.”
Under the Trump administration, Kalshi has also expanded its markets on sports, creating event contracts for single-match winners in basketball, football, baseball, and ice hockey.
Six state regulators issued cease-and-desist letters following March Madness markets, which saw over $400 million in trading volume. Kalshi responded by filing counter-lawsuits and has won victories in courts in Nevada and New Jersey so far.
Kalshi has consistently argued that the CFTC holds exclusive jurisdiction over its activities, not state regulators. The latest action by the CFTC suggests the organization favors allowing Kalshi and other prediction market sites to continue their expansion.
The CFTC had planned to hold a meeting on the topic of sports markets last week, but cancelled. Since then, the NBA has followed the MLB in voicing concern about the lack of oversight on the markets, which it says amounts to sports betting.